Posted: 2024-08-28
Week 1 lines have been out for months. Check out the biggest movers this summer, with anticipation that lines move quite a bit this week. North Carolina is now favored over Minnesota after a four-point swing Monday (+2.5 to -1.5) UConn down to +19.5 (opened +24.5) at Maryland Kentucky up to -27.5 favorite vs. Southern Miss (opened -24 – -28 appears to be a Southern Miss buy point) Colorado State down to +32.5 at Texas (opened +36.5) Hawaii dropped to as low as +13 against UCLA, but moved to +14 after failing to cover against Delaware State in Week 0 (opened +17) South Carolina grew to a -21 favorite against Old Dominion (opened -17) Charlotte is now a +6.5 underdog against James Madison (opened +10.5) Note line movements through key figures of 3 and 7 points, like Charlotte at JMU. Week 1 Coaching Notes & Matchup History North Dakota State at Colorado, Thursday (8:00 p.m.) First-ever meeting in football NDSU is 5-1 against Power Conference opponents since 2010 (6-1 against FBS), 6-0 ATS in those games Wyoming OC Tim Palosek takes over as head coach Colorado ended 2023 on a 1-8 slide; lone win came against a 3-9 Arizona State Just the fourth FCS foe for Colorado since 2017 (3-0 in those games, but 0-3 ATS. Favorites of -38, -32, and -39) Last year, Colorado went 0-2 ATS as 6+ point favorites, losing outright to Stanford (-12) Georgia vs. Clemson, Saturday (12:00 p.m.) Georgia leads the all-time series, 43-18-4 (just five meetings since 1996) UGA is 50-1 outright against opponents not named Alabama since 2020
These two last played in Charlotte to open the 2021 season. Georgia (+3) won 10-3
Clemson is 0-5-1 ATS against their first non-conference FBS opponent since 2018
Penn State at West Virginia, Saturday (12:00 p.m.)
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Penn State owns a lopsided 49-9-2 series lead in this rivalry
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Before last year, these teams last played in 1992, when it was an annual rivalry
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Last year, James Franklin scored on a fake kneel down at the end of the game to cover a -20 spread
Miami (FL) at Florida, Saturday (3:30 p.m.)
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Hurricanes lead all-time series, 29-27 (last: 2019)
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Just the fourth matchup since 2005
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Florida plays all three in-state Power Conference teams (Miami, UCF, Florida State)
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UF is 7-4 against in-state FBS opponents since 2017
Notre Dame at Texas A&M, Saturday (7:30 p.m.)
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Notre Dame leads the all-time series 3-2 (last: 2001)
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Texas A&M won the only matchup in College Station, 24-3, in 2001
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A&M is 2-4 outright against non-SEC Power Conference opponents since 2017 (4-2 ATS)
Impact Injuries On College Football Week 1 Odds
All kick times below are listed in ET.
Temple at Oklahoma, Friday (7:00 p.m.)
There arecluster injuries to Oklahoma’s receiving room.Andrel Anthonyis “cleared” but hasn’t been confirmed in for Friday.Nic Andersonis questionable for the contest, as isJayden Gibson(knee, out for season). Anthony and Anderson were listed onSunday’s depth chart. Far from a concern to Oklahoma on Friday – the Sooners are 43-point favorites – but something to monitor moving forward.
Clemson vs. Georgia, Saturday (12:00 p.m.)
Georgia WRColbie Youngis dealing with a hamstring issue. At Miami (FL) last season, Young posted impressive yards per route run (Y/RR) numbers and presents as a potential top target as a wide receiver this season. RBRoderick Robinsonis out due to surgery on an injury that hampered him most of last season; Robinson is listed as the RB2. Expected top RB, Florida transferTrevor Etienne, was arrested on DWI suspicions this offseason. Georgia won’t announce a suspension, but the RB room is worth monitoring this week.
Miami (FL) at Florida, Saturday (3:30 p.m.)
Florida RB1Montrell Johnsonis week-to-week after undergoing a knee procedure in early August. It is not expected to be a long-term thing, per head coach Billy Napier. Transfer defensive linemanJoey Slackmanhas practiced during fall camp after suffering a bicep injury at Penn. Also note the potential cluster injury to Florida’s receiving room; although no listed injuries are to starters, three receivers are listed as injured as of Monday.
Colorado State at Texas, Saturday (3:30 p.m.)
Texas star backC.J. Baxterwill miss the entire season with a torn ACL. The running back room was thinned further with a season-ending injury to depth piece Christian Clark.
Eastern Kentucky at Mississippi State, Saturday (6:00 p.m.)
The Bulldogs will be without three starters Saturday. WRKelly Akharaiyiand cornerCorey Ellingtonare both out,per Jeff Lebby. Projected starting RBJeff Pittmanis “no longer with the team” due to an “internal matter.”
Notre Dame at Texas A&M, Saturday (7:30 p.m.)
Texas A&M’s top running back,Reuben Owens, is out for the season with a torn ACL. Le’Veon Moss and Amari Daniels combined for over 1,000 yards last season. TEDonovan Greensuffered a season-ending injury last year, which is always worth monitoring early in the season. Notre Dame lost its starting left tackle,Charles Jagusah, for the season. In his place, freshman Sullivan Absher will start.ND will start two sophom*ores and three freshmen along the OL against Texas A&M’s stout defensive front. TEMitchell Evansand All-American DTHoward Crosssat out of an Aug. 17 scrimmage. Per coach Marcus Freeman, “if Notre Dame played at Texas A&M [on Aug.17], that both would be in the lineup.” Evans tore his ACL last season.
Other Impact Injuries
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Chip Traynum, RB, Kentucky (2 weeks)
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Caullin Lacy, WR, Louisville (6-8 weeks)
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C.J. Smith, WR, Purdue
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Kenan Christon, RB, San Diego State (6-8 weeks)
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Jacob Bayer, C, Arkansas State (season)
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Tony Mathis, RB, Houston (season)
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Cole Rusk, TE, Illinois (season)
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Nick Kidwell, OL, Indiana (season)
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Rod Moore, SAF, Michigan (season)
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Teddy Prochazka, LT, Nebraska (season)
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Mo Toure, LB, Rutgers (season)
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Chris Lewis, WR, Troy (season)
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Harrison Waylee, RB, Wyoming (season)
Other Roster & Staff Impacts on Week 1 Odds
Illinois State at Iowa, Saturday (12:00 p.m.)
Head coachKirk Ferentzand wide receiver coachJon Budmayrwill serve a one-game suspension for NCAA recruiting violations. Both return to the sidelines in Week 2 against Iowa State. Those violations were in relation to this week’s starting QB,Cade McNamara. WRKaleb Brownwill not play in the game as a result of an offseason arrest but should return next week.
Kent State at Pitt, Saturday (12:00 p.m.)
JuniorDevin Kargmanwas named the starting QB in mid-August. Kargman started the final game of the season for Kent State, completing 16 of his 28 passes for 256 yards and two touchdowns (no picks). The Flashes tied their season-high for points against an FBS opponent but lost 37-27.
Portland State at Washington State, Saturday (3:30 p.m.)
John Mateerwill start at QB for Wazzu. Currently, the Cougars are 28.5-point favorites over FCS Portland State.
Boise State at Georgia Southern, Saturday (4:00 p.m.)
QBMaddux Madsengets the start this week over highly-touted recruitMalachi Nelson. Madsen was inserted at times over Taylen Green last season.
North Texas at South Alabama, Saturday (5:00 p.m.)
TCU transfer QBChandler Morriswas named starter for North Texas. Earlier in the month, backup QBStone Earletransferred to Marshall and is a name to watch for the QB1 job in Huntington.
Richmond at Virginia, Saturday (6:00 p.m.)
Anthony Colandreawas named the Week 1 starter, but not the season starter, overTony Muskett. Colandrea burst onto the scene as a true freshman gunslinger last year.
Western Kentucky at Alabama, Saturday (7:00 p.m.)
Texas State transfer QBT.J. Finleywill “start first” on Saturday.Caden Veltkampplayed well in WKU’s bowl win over Old Dominion and opened the spring listed as a TE. Head coachClay Helton noted both QBsmay play in Week 1.
North Carolina at Minnesota (8:00 p.m.)
Texas A&M and LSU transferMax Johnsonstarts against Minnesota. However, he “may share time” in the opener with true sophom*oreConner Harrell.
Weather Impacts On Week 1 Odds
Weekly college football weather reports will be released later this week as forecasts become more certain. But here’s a few spots to keep tabs on early in the week.
HRRR weather models suggest a notable disturbance Thursday over the upper Midwest.Forecasts for North Carolina at Minnesotacall for thunderstorms, potentially heavy ones as of Monday. This could also affectLindenwood at Kansasand highs in the area could be in the mid-90s, falling to the upper 60s at night (note wind changes!).
For Friday,FAU at Michigan State currently calls for rain. While not currently forecast to be heavy, it’s from the same system that blows through Minneapolis the day prior.
Saturday as a whole looks pretty clear. Keep an eye on the northeast and Mid-Atlantic region for rain or storms. Games impacted could includeUConn at Maryland,Eastern Michigan at UMass,ETSU at Appalachian State,Richmond at Virginia, andCampbell at Liberty.
Georgia State at Georgia Tech, Saturday (8:00 p.m.)
Georgia Tech returns home from Ireland coming off an emotional walk-off win over top-10 Florida State. The Yellow Jackets do not get a bye or extra days to turn around from the international trip. Besides being a travel spot, this is also a prime letdown position for Georgia Tech. Georgia State turns over at head coach, meaning a complete shift in the scheme is coming, likely to both sides of the ball. Without any tape on this Georgia State team, Georgia Tech could struggle to defend early (see Montana State at New Mexico). The Panthers travel just two miles for this “road” game. They have a serious rest and travel advantage. Though the roster lacks a ton of scholarship players, Georgia State could cover the +22.5 spread based on situation alone.Perhaps you want to look at Georgia State +12.5 first-half instead.
Southern Illinois at BYU, Saturday (8:00 p.m.)
Southern Illinois has beaten FBS opponents in each of the last two years. The Salukis upended Northern Illinois last year (+6 underdogs) and Northwestern the year prior (+13). Southern Illinois is a +14.5 underdog this weekend at BYU.
Boston College at Florida State, Monday (7:30 p.m.)
Florida State was handed a 24-21 loss to Georgia Tech in Ireland this past weekend. FSU returns home with no bye week and hosts another ACC foe, Boston College. The ‘Noles dropped from -21 favorites to -17 following the loss. Boston College did not play a Week 0 game. While this is far from a trap game for FSU –after all, they already suffered the surprise loss – the travel situation here could affect the team, even given two extra days.
